Abstract:
The current study is mainly focused on the monthly variation in the lightning flash rate
(LFR) and related thermodynamic parameters using the data for the years 2000–2013, and the trend
of lightning variation is explored. Lightning data are used from a lightning imaging sensor (LIS)
and an optical transient detector (OTP) boarded on the tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM).
Additionally, aerosol optical depth (AOD) data at 550 nm for the same period were considered
from a Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The assessment of lightning and
AOD using monthly data makes it difficult to study seasonal contributions, and higher-resolution
(hourly) data may be more appropriate, but unfortunately, no data were available with a higher
resolution than monthly. The dependency of LFR is also investigated using thermodynamic/dynamic
parameters. The LFR shows a moderate correlation with a correlation coefficient of 0.56, 0.62, and
0.63 for AOD, CAPE, and vertical velocity, respectively. The increasing AOD in the pre-monsoon
season is associated with higher lightning flash rates over this region. The possible sources of
aerosols that cause an increase in lightning activities are identified from the classification of aerosols
based on the characteristic values of the AOD and the Ångström exponent. The thermodynamic
relation of the Product of Bowen ratio with the sum of the precipitation rate and evaporation rate has
been used as a proxy to evaluate the lightning flash rate density over Srinagar, Uttarakhand region
(78.55◦ E–79.05◦ E, 29.97◦ N–30.47◦ N), with nine models from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison
Project-Phase 5 (CMIP5). The model-simulated LFR has also been used for the projection of lightning
in the late 21st century, and the projected LFR over the study area shows a 7.41% increase during
the (2079–2088) period as compared to the historic period (1996–2005). The results of the study
region indicate caution in using any single climate variable as a proxy for projecting a change in the
lightning–climate relationships in the scenario of global warming.
